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NOODLES & Co (NDLS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue of $122.1M decreased 0.5% YoY, but system-wide comps rose 4.0%; adjusted EBITDA increased 32.7% to $6.5M as margin initiatives and underperforming store closures took hold .
  • Revenue beat S&P Global consensus ($122.1M vs $119.8M*) and normalized EPS was slightly better than consensus (actual -$0.10* vs -$0.105*), while GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.20; non-cash impairment linked to closures weighed on GAAP EPS .
  • FY25 guidance raised on multiple fronts: revenue ($492–$495M vs $487–$495M prior), comps (3.6%–4.2% vs 2.5%–4.0% prior), and restaurant contribution margin (12.3%–12.7% vs 11.8%–12.6% prior), reflecting accelerating comps (+8% in October) and operational improvements .
  • Near-term stock reaction catalysts: strategic alternatives review announced in September (refinancing or other transactions), accelerating comp trends into Q4 (+8% October), and cost-savings plan (> $5M in 2025) supporting margin trajectory .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Sequential comp acceleration within Q3 (+1.6% July, +4.5% August, +5.5% September) and +8% in October as value platform and menu innovation resonated; traffic turned positive in 2H Q3 and October despite lapping heavy 2024 discounting .
  • Strong adoption of Delicious Duos value platform (mixing ~4–5%), and Chili Garlic Ramen LTO (launched in October at $8.95) drove trial and repeat, expanding reach and brand relevance .
  • Restaurant contribution margin improved to 13.2% (+40 bps YoY) and adjusted EBITDA rose 33% YoY to $6.5M, aided by closures of negative cash flow units and cost controls .

Management quote: “The dramatic improvement in our food from our new menu rollout, the strong value proposition of our Delicious Duos platform… and the impact of our improved marketing and operational execution are all working together to build significant momentum.” — CEO Joe Christina .

What Went Wrong

  • Total revenue down 0.5% YoY; GAAP diluted EPS -$0.20 with $5.3M of pre-tax restaurant impairments tied to planned closures; operating margin remained negative (-5.2%) .
  • Cost pressure: COGS increased to 25.7% (+20 bps YoY) from higher food costs; other restaurant operating costs rose 40 bps to 20.5% on higher delivery fees and marketing, partially offset by sales leverage .
  • Company comp traffic was -0.6% for Q3 (turning positive mid-quarter), indicating value sensitivity persists; Q2 also reflected menu rollout costs and elevated COGS (26.5%) .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$123.794 $126.433 $122.086
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.20 -$0.38 -$0.20
Operating Margin %-5.2% -11.7% -5.2%
Restaurant Contribution Margin %10.3% 12.8% 13.2%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$2.404 $6.016 $6.498
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$9.057 $17.552 $9.151

Cost structure and operating KPIs:

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025
COGS (% of Sales)26.5% 25.7%
Labor (% of Sales)31.7% 31.4%
Other Restaurant Operating Costs (% of Sales)19.7% 20.5%
Occupancy ($USD Millions)$11.4 $11.1
Company Comp Traffic (%)-2.5% -0.6% (positive in 2H Q3)
Company Avg Check Increase (%)4.0% 4.6%
Company AUV ($USD Millions)$1.353 $1.341

Comparable sales and AUV detail:

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Company-Owned Comp Sales (%)4.7% 1.5% 4.0%
Franchise Comp Sales (%)2.9% 1.6% 4.3%
System-Wide Comp Sales (%)4.4% 1.5% 4.0%
Company-Owned AUV ($)$1,314 $1,353 $1,341
Franchise AUV ($)$1,283 $1,327 $1,311

Monthly and Q4-to-date trend highlights:

MetricJuly 2025August 2025September 2025October 2025
Monthly Comps (%)+1.6% +4.5% +5.5% +8.0%

Balance sheet and cash flow items:

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$2.3 $4.7
Debt Balance ($USD Millions)$108.3 $109.8
Revolver Availability ($USD Millions)$13.7 $12.2
Capex ($USD Millions)$3.4 $3.7
Company-Owned Restaurants Closed (Quarter)6 15
Franchise Restaurants Closed (Quarter)2 3

Estimate comparison (S&P Global):

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Actual ($USD)$123,794,000 $126,433,000 $122,086,000
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)$123,319,000*$131,620,000*$119,770,000*
GAAP Diluted EPS (Actual, $)-0.20 -0.38 -0.20
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)-0.11*-0.055*-0.105*
Primary EPS Actual ($)-0.10*-0.12*-0.10*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q2 2025)Current Guidance (Q3 2025)Change
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$487–$495 $492–$495 Raised (low end)
Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth (%)FY 20252.5%–4.0% 3.6%–4.2% Raised
Restaurant Contribution Margin (%)FY 202511.8%–12.6% 12.3%–12.7% Raised
G&A ($USD Millions)FY 2025$48–$50 $48–$49 Lowered upper bound
Depreciation & Amortization ($USD Millions)FY 2025$27–$29 $28–$29 Raised lower bound
Net Interest Expense ($USD Millions)FY 2025$10.5–$11.5 ~ $11 Maintained (midpoint)
New Company-Owned Openings (Units)FY 20252 2 Maintained
Company-Owned Closures (Units)FY 202528–32 31–34 Increased
Franchise Closures (Units)FY 2025n/a (implied)7–8 Added / Increased
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)FY 2025$12–$13 $12–$13 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1–Q2)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Value Platform (Delicious Duos)Launched 7/30; intended permanent; strong early value scores; mix elevated; designed for lunch and lighter dinner Mixing ~4–5% across restaurants; viewed as everyday option; supports positive comp momentum Improving adoption and consistency
Menu Innovation (Chili Garlic Ramen)Planned LTO starting early Q4; $8.95 price; broad appeal in testing Launched in October; strong trial and repeat; resonates with younger guests; slated to end by year-end Successful LTO, potential future category
Operations Excellence ProgramRolled out new coaching program (6 coaches) to improve execution consistency Coaching team visited ~200 restaurants; improved guest satisfaction and consistency Execution strengthening
Digital/Third-Party Delivery & RewardsOwn digital/app traffic +2% YoY; rewards check-ins +4% YoY; ~27% transactions from rewards in Q2 Third-party delivery up 12% YoY; increased rewards enrollment and engagement Ongoing digital growth
Portfolio Optimization (Closures)Expanded closures to 28–32 in 2025; remove negative cash flow; post-closure lift Closed 15 company-owned/3 franchise in Q3; ~1% comp lift in October; expect >$2M 2026 contribution impact Accretive to margins and comps
Strategic AlternativesNot mentionedBoard initiated review; options include refinancing and transactions; no timetable New potential catalyst

Management Commentary

  • “October comparable restaurant sales increased 8%. Our traffic has also been positive since the middle of the third quarter and in October… All of this is driving margin and Adjusted EBITDA improvement, guest enthusiasm and strengthening our relevance.” — CEO Joe Christina .
  • “COGS in the third quarter were 25.7% of sales… Labor costs… 31.4%… Other restaurant operating costs… 20.5%… Net loss… included a $5.3 million non-cash impairment… Adjusted EBITDA… $6.5 million… We are on schedule to close a total of 31–34 company-owned restaurants by the end of 2025.” — CFO Mike Hynes .
  • “Our board of directors has initiated a review of strategic alternatives… options, such as refinancing existing debt or other strategic or financial transactions.” — CEO Joe Christina .

Q&A Highlights

  • Delicious Duos value platform mixing ~4–5%, with halo effects and upsell into broader menu; supports consistent value scores versus competition .
  • October comp lift: ~+8% overall; ~100 bps of that driven by sales transfer from closures; traffic remains positive even ex-transfer, despite lapping heavy discounting last year .
  • Ramen LTO: began in October; slated to end by year-end; trial and repeat strong; potential future rotation, uncertain permanence .
  • Closures benefit to adjusted EBITDA in Q3 was ~$300K due to back-weighted timing (September/October); guidance embeds sales transfers and check normalization beyond Thanksgiving .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue: Beat in Q3 ($122.1M actual vs $119.8M consensus*). Q1 slightly above consensus; Q2 miss vs consensus, aligning with softer traffic and menu rollout costs .
  • EPS: GAAP diluted EPS -$0.20 in Q3; S&P “Primary EPS” actual -$0.10* slightly better than consensus -$0.105*, indicating normalized/non-GAAP performance was ahead of Street while GAAP was burdened by impairments .
  • Implication: Street models likely to adjust upward revenue run-rate and restaurant contribution margins, reflecting comp momentum and closure benefits; GAAP EPS sensitivity remains to the pace/timing of impairments and closure costs.

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Comp momentum accelerating (Q3 monthly ramp; October +8%), driven by value platform and successful LTO; supports raised FY25 revenue and margin guidance .
  • Closure program is accretive: removal of negative cash flow restaurants, ~1% comp lift from sales transfers in October, and expected >$2M contribution benefit in 2026 .
  • Margin trajectory improving: restaurant contribution margin up to 13.2% (+40 bps YoY); cost-savings plan >$5M in 2025; continued focus on labor model, food waste, and marketing efficiency .
  • Watch cost mix: COGS +20 bps YoY and other operating costs +40 bps on delivery fees and marketing; continued sales leverage and vendor rebates partially offset .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity: $4.7M cash, $109.8M debt, $12.2M revolver availability; strategic alternatives review could be a near-term catalyst for refinancing or transaction optionality .
  • Near-term trading lens: Positive revenue surprise and raised guidance vs. recent comps trend are supportive; GAAP EPS headwinds from impairments and closure timing may temper upside until normalization completes .
  • Medium-term thesis: Value-led menu, digital growth, and targeted portfolio pruning underpin margin expansion; sustained traffic recovery and closure benefits are key to translating comp strength into GAAP profitability .